Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Drake LondonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Rams vs. Falcons
Right now, Drake London’s receiving yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 50.5 (-110) after it opened @ 47.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Falcons are a big 10.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 130.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 37.3 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Rams defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in the NFL.
- THE BLITZ projects Drake London to garner 7.8 targets in this week’s contest, on average, placing him in the 89th percentile among WRs.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 7th-least pass-heavy offense in football (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 58.7% pass rate.
- The Atlanta Falcons have called the 2nd-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 59.2 plays per game.
- The Atlanta Falcons offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
- The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has shown good efficiency versus WRs since the start of last season, giving up 7.65 yards-per-target to the position: the 6th-least in the NFL.
- The Los Angeles Rams cornerbacks rank as the 2nd-best collection of CBs in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
58
Receiving Yards
58
Receiving Yards
