Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Diontae JohnsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Steelers vs. Patriots
Right now, Diontae Johnson’s receiving yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 55.5 (-105) after it opened @ 54.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Steelers are a 3-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 9th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 64.1 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Diontae Johnson to total 9.5 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 96th percentile among wide receivers.
- Diontae Johnson has been heavily involved in his team’s offense, earning a Target Share of 28.8% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 98th percentile among wideouts.
- Diontae Johnson has posted a whopping 92.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 92nd percentile among wide receivers.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to run the 5th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 60.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 32.6 pass attempts per game against the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season: 10th-least in the league.
- Diontae Johnson’s receiving effectiveness has worsened this season, averaging a measly 6.16 yards-per-target vs a 7.32 rate last season.
- The New England Patriots defense has allowed the 5th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 128.0) vs. WRs since the start of last season.
- The New England Patriots pass defense has surrendered the 3rd-lowest Completion% in football (60.9%) versus wideouts since the start of last season (60.9%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
69
Receiving Yards
69
Receiving Yards
