Week 2 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Diontae Johnson from EV Insight

Diontae JohnsonReceiving Yards

Right now, Diontae Johnson’s receiving yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-105/-125).

The public has bet up the OVER up to 55.5 (-105) after it opened @ 54.5 (-115).

Pros

The Steelers are a 3-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 9th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 64.1 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Diontae Johnson to total 9.5 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 96th percentile among wide receivers.
Diontae Johnson has been heavily involved in his team’s offense, earning a Target Share of 28.8% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 98th percentile among wideouts.
Diontae Johnson has posted a whopping 92.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 92nd percentile among wide receivers.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to run the 5th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 60.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.6 pass attempts per game against the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season: 10th-least in the league.
Diontae Johnson’s receiving effectiveness has worsened this season, averaging a measly 6.16 yards-per-target vs a 7.32 rate last season.
The New England Patriots defense has allowed the 5th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 128.0) vs. WRs since the start of last season.
The New England Patriots pass defense has surrendered the 3rd-lowest Completion% in football (60.9%) versus wideouts since the start of last season (60.9%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
69
Receiving Yards