Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Deebo SamuelReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Rams vs. 49ers
Right now, Deebo Samuel’s receiving yards prop is set at 46.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The San Francisco 49ers have played in the most “bad weather” (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football since the start of last season, which should result in higher pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved offense effectiveness when facing better conditions in this week’s game.
- The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Deebo Samuel to total 6.9 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 83rd percentile among WRs.
- Deebo Samuel has been among the top WRs in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 52.0 yards per game while grading out in the 77th percentile.
- The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has given up the 5th-highest Completion% in the NFL (69.9%) vs. wideouts since the start of last season (69.9%).
Cons
- The 49ers are a giant 7.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 8th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 54.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 121.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Los Angeles Rams safeties grade out as the 6th-best group of safeties in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
60
Receiving Yards
60
Receiving Yards
