Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Puka NacuaReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Rams vs. 49ers
Right now, Puka Nacua’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (+107/-139).
The public has bet the OVER up to 49.5 (+107) after it opened @ 43.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Rams are a massive 7.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 66.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 36.4 pass attempts per game against the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in the NFL.
- THE BLITZ projects Puka Nacua to accumulate 7.7 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 89th percentile among WRs.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 58.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Los Angeles Rams have run the 9th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling just 55.6 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Puka Nacua to be a much smaller part of his team’s air attack this week (22.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (38.9% in games he has played).
- Puka Nacua has been among the weakest wideouts in the league at picking up extra yardage, averaging just 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 2nd percentile.
- The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has performed very well when opposing WRs have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 3.61 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 4th-least in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
68
Receiving Yards
68
Receiving Yards
