Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Trey LancePassing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
49ers vs. Seahawks
Right now, Trey Lance’s passing yards prop is set at 187.5 yards (-103/-133).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 187.5 (-133) after it opened @ 197.5 (-115).
Pros
- Opposing QBs have averaged 36.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Seattle Seahawks defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in the league.
- The San Francisco 49ers O-line ranks as the 4th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
- Opposing QBs have passed for the 2nd-most yards in football (275.0 per game) against the Seattle Seahawks defense since the start of last season.
- Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL versus the Seattle Seahawks defense since the start of last season (73.8%).
- The Seattle Seahawks pass defense has exhibited bad efficiency since the start of last season, giving up 8.24 yards-per-target: the 5th-most in the league.
Cons
- The 49ers are a big 8.5-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 44.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run on the slate this week at 120.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The San Francisco 49ers have called the 8th-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a mere 60.8 plays per game.
- The weatherman calls for 20-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Projection
THE BLITZ
159
Passing Yards
159
Passing Yards
