Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Marcus MariotaPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Rams vs. Falcons
Right now, Marcus Mariota’s passing yards prop is set at 215.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 215.5 (-110) after it opened @ 212.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Falcons are a big 10.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 130.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 37.3 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Rams defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in the NFL.
- The Los Angeles Rams defense has struggled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 5.51 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 10th-most in football.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 7th-least pass-heavy offense in football (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 58.7% pass rate.
- The Atlanta Falcons have called the 2nd-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 59.2 plays per game.
- Marcus Mariota has attempted a measly 4.4 throws per game since the start of last season, ranking in the 3rd percentile among QBs.
- The Atlanta Falcons offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
- Marcus Mariota has been among the weakest QBs in football since the start of last season, averaging 26.0 yards per game while grading out in the 3rd percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
241
Passing Yards
241
Passing Yards
