Week 2 Player Props: Passing Yards for Geno Smith from EV Insight

Geno SmithPassing Yards

Right now, Geno Smith’s passing yards prop is set at 197.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 197.5 (-110) after it opened @ 219.5 (-115).

Pros

The Seahawks are a huge 8.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
Geno Smith has been among the most on-target QBs in the NFL since the start of last season with a stellar 71.7% Completion%, ranking in the 93rd percentile.
The Seattle Seahawks have gone no-huddle on 15.5% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-most in football). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 5th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 51.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Seahawks to call the least total plays among all teams this week with 58.7 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Seattle Seahawks have called the least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging just 55.1 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 20-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Geno Smith to attempt 27.6 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 2nd-least of all quarterbacks.

Projection

THE BLITZ
184
Passing Yards