NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Geno SmithPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
49ers vs. Seahawks
Right now, Geno Smith’s passing yards prop is set at 197.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 197.5 (-110) after it opened @ 219.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Seahawks are a huge 8.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- Geno Smith has been among the most on-target QBs in the NFL since the start of last season with a stellar 71.7% Completion%, ranking in the 93rd percentile.
- The Seattle Seahawks have gone no-huddle on 15.5% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-most in football). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 5th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 51.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Seahawks to call the least total plays among all teams this week with 58.7 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Seattle Seahawks have called the least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging just 55.1 plays per game.
- The forecast calls for 20-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Geno Smith to attempt 27.6 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 2nd-least of all quarterbacks.
Projection
THE BLITZ
184
Passing Yards
184
Passing Yards
