Week 2 Player Props: Passing Yards for C.J. Stroud from EV Insight

C.J. StroudPassing Yards

Right now, C.J. Stroud’s passing yards prop is set at 202.5 yards (-101/-135).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 202.5 (-135) after it opened @ 218.5 (-119).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 134.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 3rd-highest clip in the NFL vs. the Indianapolis Colts defense since the start of last season (74.3%).
The Indianapolis Colts defense has not been good when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 5.75 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 3rd-most in football.

Cons

The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 5th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 53.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects C.J. Stroud to attempt 33.1 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 9th-least of all QBs.
Opposing offenses have averaged 30.6 pass attempts per game versus the Indianapolis Colts defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in the NFL.
C.J. Stroud has been among the worst per-play passers in the league this year, averaging a lowly 5.32 yards-per-target while checking in at the lowly 23rd percentile.

Projection

THE BLITZ
244
Passing Yards