Week 18 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Royce Freeman from EV Insight

Royce FreemanRushing Yards

Right now, Royce Freeman’s rushing yards prop is set at 32.5 yards (-112/-118).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 32.5 (-118) after it opened @ 35.5 (-115).

Pros

Royce Freeman has been a much bigger part of his team’s run game this year (48.5% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (17.2%).
Opposing squads have rushed for the 10th-most yards in football (133 per game) against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year.
The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Cons

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.2% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Texans are a 3-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the 8th-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 38.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Texans to call the 9th-least total plays on the slate this week with 64.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Royce Freeman’s ground effectiveness (3.08 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the league this year (24th percentile among RBs).

Projection

THE BLITZ
41
Rushing Yards