NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Latavius MurrayRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Broncos vs. Chargers
Right now, Latavius Murray’s rushing yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-131/-104).
The public has bet the OVER up to 55.5 (-131) after it opened @ 48.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Broncos are a 6.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to run the 7th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Latavius Murray to accrue 15.9 carries in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 88th percentile among RBs.
- Latavius Murray has been a much bigger part of his offense’s running game this season (56.6% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (33.5%).
- The Los Angeles Chargers defense has had the worst efficiency against opposing running games this year, giving up 5.55 yards-per-carry.
Cons
- The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.1% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Latavius Murray’s rushing efficiency (4.00 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the league this year (24th percentile among RBs).
- The Denver Broncos have gone up against a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a mere 3.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-least in the league). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.
Projection
THE BLITZ
64
Rushing Yards
64
Rushing Yards
