Week 18 Player Props: Rushing Yards for J.K. Dobbins from EV Insight

J.K. DobbinsRushing Yards

Right now, J.K. Dobbins’s rushing yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-120/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 55.5 (-110) after it opened @ 64.5 (-114).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens as the 8th-most run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 46.0% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects J.K. Dobbins to accrue 14.5 carries in this game, on average, putting him in the 84th percentile among RBs.
J.K. Dobbins has garnered 44.2% of his team’s carries this year, ranking in the 80th percentile among RBs.
J.K. Dobbins has generated 63.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the biggest marks in the league among running backs (85th percentile).
J.K. Dobbins’s rushing effectiveness (5.51 yards per carry) has been some of the best in football this year (92nd percentile among RBs).

Cons

The Ravens are a 6.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Ravens to call the least total plays on the slate this week with 61.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have rushed for the 5th-least yards in football (just 99 per game) vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year.
The Cincinnati Bengals safeties grade out as the 7th-best collection of safeties in the NFL this year in regard to defending the run.

Projection

THE BLITZ
66
Rushing Yards