Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Christian McCaffreyRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 18
49ers vs. Cardinals
Right now, Christian McCaffrey’s rushing yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 45.5 (-115) after it opened @ 48.5 (-110).
Pros
- The 49ers are a huge 14.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 3rd-most run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 50.4% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the 49ers to run the 2nd-most total plays among all teams this week with 69.3 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to accrue 17.5 rush attempts in this contest, on average, putting him in the 95th percentile among running backs.
- The Arizona Cardinals defense has had the 9th-worst efficiency against opposing run games this year, allowing 5.06 yards-per-carry.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to be much less involved in his team’s run game this week (50.4% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (61.5% in games he has played).
- Christian McCaffrey has been among the worst RBs in the NFL at picking up extra running yardage, averaging a measly 2.60 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 14th percentile.
- The Arizona Cardinals safeties grade out as the 4th-best group of safeties in football this year in regard to run defense.
- The San Francisco 49ers have gone up against a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The San Francisco 49ers have gone no-huddle on just 3.4% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (6th-least in the league). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.
Projection
THE BLITZ
73
Rushing Yards
73
Rushing Yards
