WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Alvin KamaraRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Saints vs. Panthers
Right now, Alvin Kamara’s rushing yards prop is set at 56.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The Saints are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, which points towards a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 9th-most run-centric team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 41.9% run rate.
- THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to notch 15.0 carries in this contest, on average, putting him in the 85th percentile among RBs.
- Alvin Kamara has been given 56.1% of his team’s rush attempts this year, placing him in the 88th percentile among running backs.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Saints to run the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 61.9 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The New Orleans Saints have called the 8th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 55.0 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- Alvin Kamara has run for a lot fewer yards per game (55.0) this season than he did last season (67.0).
- The Carolina Panthers have stacked the box against opponents on 26.1% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
61
Rushing Yards
61
Rushing Yards
