Week 18 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Alvin Kamara from EV Insight

Alvin KamaraRushing Yards

Right now, Alvin Kamara’s rushing yards prop is set at 56.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

The Saints are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 9th-most run-centric team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 41.9% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to notch 15.0 carries in this contest, on average, putting him in the 85th percentile among RBs.
Alvin Kamara has been given 56.1% of his team’s rush attempts this year, placing him in the 88th percentile among running backs.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Saints to run the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 61.9 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have called the 8th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 55.0 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Alvin Kamara has run for a lot fewer yards per game (55.0) this season than he did last season (67.0).
The Carolina Panthers have stacked the box against opponents on 26.1% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
61
Rushing Yards