Week 18 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Aaron Jones from EV Insight

Aaron JonesRushing Yards

Right now, Aaron Jones’s rushing yards prop is set at 66.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 66.5 (-110) after it opened @ 62.5 (-110).

Pros

With a 3-point advantage, the Packers are favored in this week’s contest, suggesting more of a focus on rushing than their typical game plan.
In this week’s contest, Aaron Jones is expected by our trusted projection set to place in the 83rd percentile among running backs with 16.4 rush attempts.
While Aaron Jones has earned 50.2% of his team’s rush attempts in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be a much bigger part of Green Bay’s rushing attack in this contest at 63.4%.
The Green Bay offensive line ranks as the 6th-best in the NFL last year at run-game blocking.
With a stellar tally of 57.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (85th percentile), Aaron Jones rates as one of the top pure runners in the league this year.

Cons

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Packers to run on 41.1% of their opportunities: the 9th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is forecasted by the predictive model to see only 126.5 plays on offense called: the 2nd-fewest on the slate this week.
The Packers have called the 10th-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging just 56.9 plays per game.
The opposing side have run for the fewest adjusted yards in the NFL (just 83.0 per game) versus the Bears defense this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
71
Rushing Yards