Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Dalton KincaidReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Dolphins vs. Bills
Right now, Dalton Kincaid’s receiving yards prop is set at 30.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 30.5 (-110) after it opened @ 32.5 (-114).
Pros
- Right now, the 10th-most pass-focused offense in the league (63.4% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Buffalo Bills.
- Our trusted projections expect Dalton Kincaid to garner 5.6 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 85th percentile among tight ends.
- With a high 17.3% Target Rate (89th percentile) this year, Dalton Kincaid stands among the TEs with the biggest workloads in the league.
- With a remarkable 39.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (84th percentile) this year, Dalton Kincaid ranks among the leading pass-catching TEs in football.
- The Miami Dolphins pass defense has given up the 10th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (76.9%) to tight ends this year (76.9%).
Cons
- With a 3-point advantage, the Bills are favored this week, implying more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical game plan.
- The model projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 6th-most sluggish paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 28.47 seconds per play.
- As it relates to safeties in pass coverage, Miami’s collection of safeties has been fantastic this year, ranking as the 2nd-best in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
37
Receiving Yards
37
Receiving Yards
