NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Terry McLaurinReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Commanders vs. Cowboys
Right now, Terry McLaurin’s receiving yards prop is set at 58.5 yards (-135/+105).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 58.5 (+105) after it opened @ 60.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Commanders are a big 13.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
- Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Washington Commanders to pass on 66.4% of their plays: the highest rate on the slate this week.
- The model projects this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.6 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
- In this week’s contest, Terry McLaurin is predicted by the model to finish in the 87th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 7.4 targets.
- Terry McLaurin has accrued far more air yards this season (93.0 per game) than he did last season (88.0 per game).
Cons
- The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
- Opposing quarterbacks teams have been unwilling to lean on the pass against the Dallas Cowboys, averaging the 2nd-fewest attempts in football (a lowly 30.8 per game) this year.
- Terry McLaurin’s ball-catching skills have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 67.4% to 60.0%.
- Terry McLaurin’s receiving efficiency has diminished this year, accumulating a measly 8.07 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 9.90 mark last year.
- Terry McLaurin’s skills in picking up extra yardage have declined this season, totaling just 4.08 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 5.84 mark last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
51
Receiving Yards
51
Receiving Yards
