Week 18 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Pat Freiermuth from EV Insight

Pat FreiermuthReceiving Yards

Right now, Pat Freiermuth’s receiving yards prop is set at 40.5 yards (-106/-129).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 40.5 (-129) after it opened @ 41.5 (-115).

Pros

The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 5th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 61.5 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Pat Freiermuth to total 6.3 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 94th percentile among TEs.
Pat Freiermuth has been a more integral piece of his offense’s pass attack this year (19.5% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (12.8%).
Pat Freiermuth has totaled many more air yards this season (53.0 per game) than he did last season (27.0 per game).

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 8th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 54.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game versus the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 4th-least in the NFL.
Pat Freiermuth’s possession skills have tailed off this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 80.1% to 68.9%.
The Cleveland Browns pass defense has given up the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the league (65.3%) vs. tight ends this year (65.3%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
46
Receiving Yards