Week 18 Player Props: Receiving Yards for David Njoku from EV Insight

David NjokuReceiving Yards

Right now, David Njoku’s receiving yards prop is set at 35.5 yards (+100/-130).

The public has bet the OVER up to 35.5 (+100) after it opened @ 33.5 (-115).

Pros

The Cleveland Browns have called the 5th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 61.5 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects David Njoku to earn 6.0 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 92nd percentile among TEs.
David Njoku has been a much bigger part of his offense’s passing game this year (20.4% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (11.8%).
David Njoku has put up significantly more air yards this year (46.0 per game) than he did last year (31.0 per game).

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the 10th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 54.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Browns to call the 5th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 33.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 9th-least in football.
David Njoku’s ability to grind out extra yardage has diminished this year, totaling a mere 5.61 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 6.64 rate last year.
The Pittsburgh Steelers safeties rank as the 5th-best collection of safeties in the league this year in pass coverage.

Projection

THE BLITZ
46
Receiving Yards