Week 18 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Pat Freiermuth from EV Insight

Pat FreiermuthReceiving Yards

Right now, Pat Freiermuth’s receiving yards prop is set at 24.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

The Pittsburgh Steelers may throw the ball less in this contest (and call more carries) given that they be forced to utilize backup QB Mason Rudolph.
Opposing QBs have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game versus the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: most in football.
The predictive model expects Pat Freiermuth to total 4.0 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 75th percentile when it comes to TEs.
Pat Freiermuth’s ball-catching skills have improved this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate jumping from 67.8% to 71.5%.

Cons

With a 3-point advantage, the Steelers are favored in this week’s contest, suggesting more of an emphasis on running than their typical approach.
Our trusted projections expect the Steelers to be the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 47.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
At the present time, the 4th-slowest paced offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Pittsburgh Steelers.
After totaling 50.0 air yards per game last season, Pat Freiermuth has produced significantly fewer this season, now pacing 27.0 per game.
Pat Freiermuth’s 29.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit worse this season than it was last season at 41.2.

Projection

THE BLITZ
20
Receiving Yards