Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Pat FreiermuthReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Ravens vs. Steelers
Right now, Pat Freiermuth’s receiving yards prop is set at 24.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The Pittsburgh Steelers may throw the ball less in this contest (and call more carries) given that they be forced to utilize backup QB Mason Rudolph.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game versus the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: most in football.
- The predictive model expects Pat Freiermuth to total 4.0 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 75th percentile when it comes to TEs.
- Pat Freiermuth’s ball-catching skills have improved this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate jumping from 67.8% to 71.5%.
Cons
- With a 3-point advantage, the Steelers are favored in this week’s contest, suggesting more of an emphasis on running than their typical approach.
- Our trusted projections expect the Steelers to be the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 47.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- At the present time, the 4th-slowest paced offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Pittsburgh Steelers.
- After totaling 50.0 air yards per game last season, Pat Freiermuth has produced significantly fewer this season, now pacing 27.0 per game.
- Pat Freiermuth’s 29.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit worse this season than it was last season at 41.2.
Projection
THE BLITZ
20
Receiving Yards
20
Receiving Yards
