Week 18 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Logan Thomas

Logan ThomasReceiving Yards

Right now, Logan Thomas’s receiving yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 25.5 (-110) after it opened @ 26.5 (-110).

Pros

The Commanders are a big 13.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Washington Commanders to pass on 66.4% of their plays: the highest rate on the slate this week.
The model projects this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.6 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
With a remarkable 75.6% Route% (88th percentile) this year, Logan Thomas places as one of the TEs with the highest volume in the NFL.
Logan Thomas’s 33.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this year signifies an impressive boost in his receiving proficiency over last year’s 25.0 figure.

Cons

The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been unwilling to lean on the pass against the Dallas Cowboys, averaging the 2nd-fewest attempts in football (a lowly 30.8 per game) this year.
The Cowboys defense has allowed the 10th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 47.0) versus tight ends this year.
This year, the formidable Dallas Cowboys defense has allowed a measly 69.9% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing TEs: the 9th-best rate in the league.
As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Dallas’s unit has been very good this year, profiling as the 6th-best in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
23
Receiving Yards