Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Jakobi MeyersReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Bills vs. Patriots
Right now, Jakobi Meyers’s receiving yards prop is set at 54.5 yards (-114/-114).
The public has bet the OVER up to 54.5 (-114) after it opened @ 47.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Patriots are a giant 8.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the 6th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 63.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots offense as the 8th-quickest paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 26.83 seconds per snap.
- THE BLITZ projects Jakobi Meyers to notch 8.9 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 95th percentile among wideouts.
- Jakobi Meyers has been among the leading pass-catching WRs this year, averaging an impressive 60.0 yards per game while ranking in the 81st percentile.
Cons
- The Buffalo Bills pass defense has excelled when opposing WRs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 3.08 yards-after-the-catch this year: the least in the NFL.
- The Buffalo Bills linebackers profile as the 2nd-best collection of LBs in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
- The New England Patriots O-line has afforded their QB a mere 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
- The New England Patriots have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.6% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (3rd-least in football). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.
Projection
THE BLITZ
66
Receiving Yards
66
Receiving Yards
