Week 18 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Jakobi Meyers from EV Insight

Jakobi MeyersReceiving Yards

Right now, Jakobi Meyers’s receiving yards prop is set at 54.5 yards (-114/-114).

The public has bet the OVER up to 54.5 (-114) after it opened @ 47.5 (-115).

Pros

The Patriots are a giant 8.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the 6th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 63.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots offense as the 8th-quickest paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 26.83 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Jakobi Meyers to notch 8.9 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 95th percentile among wideouts.
Jakobi Meyers has been among the leading pass-catching WRs this year, averaging an impressive 60.0 yards per game while ranking in the 81st percentile.

Cons

The Buffalo Bills pass defense has excelled when opposing WRs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 3.08 yards-after-the-catch this year: the least in the NFL.
The Buffalo Bills linebackers profile as the 2nd-best collection of LBs in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
The New England Patriots O-line has afforded their QB a mere 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
The New England Patriots have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.6% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (3rd-least in football). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.

Projection

THE BLITZ
66
Receiving Yards