Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The 2022-23 college basketball season is in midseason form, and we get some exciting matchups as conference play begins and 2022 comes to an end. Below are my favorite bets for Saturday’s slate. Let’s have some fun.
Texas vs. Oklahoma State
(Line: Texas -2, DraftKings Sportsbook)
What an absolute shame it is to see Chris Beard ruin his career like he did, as Texas rightfully announced his firing late this week. So the big question here is how the Longhorns can handle the adversity of losing their head coach midseason and also getting absolutely thrashed by Kansas State at home. To me, they’ve already been dealing without Beard for the last few weeks (Rodney Terry has done a great job as the interim), and it actually could be a relief for the players to finally see a decision made on the whole situation. I also am a buyer that the Kansas State debacle was an outlier performance (their Kenpom defensive efficiency rank has moved from 11th to 41st in a week, yikes). Matchup-wise, Oklahoma State has historically struggled against any no middle defense philosophy as their offense is predicated around getting the ball to the rim and hoping Boone or Cisse can gobble up and offensive rebound. Speaking of Cisse, he is doubtful for this game with an ankle injury which is a significant loss to the Poke’s No. 14 defense. Coach Boyton loves to pressure the ball defensively and funnel drivers into the paint where 7-foot Cisse is waiting there as one of the best rim protectors in the country. Losing his presence is a huge hit to Oklahoma State and Texas should be able to find enough success on offense with a rejuvenated Marcus Carr off the ball and turn the Pokes over enough (323rd in turnover rate) to rebound and pull out the road victory.
The Pick
Texas -2
Kentucky vs. Alabama
(Line: Alabama -6, DraftKings Sportsbook)
The classic John Calipari panic mode came out in full effect this week as he announced he will “no longer be playing his bench players” going forward. The childness of Calipari is comical, but I see the shorter rotation working well for the once-struggling Kentucky squad. The defensive issues are real for the Cats, and Alabama can easily spread them out and take advantage of Oscar Tshiebwe in drop coverage. But offensively this is a matchup where Kentucky could exploit the Alabama switches and have a ton of success. Nate Oats refuses to double the post, as he’s OK letting his bigs Charles Bediako and Noah Clowney work in isolation defensively in the paint. That could spell trouble (and a lot of fouls) going up against last year’s Wooden Award winner and absolute tank down-low Tshiebwe. I am a buyer of Kentucky’s defensive improvement, especially with more emphasis and confidence Calipari is instilling in Jacob Toppin, Cason Wallace and Chris Livingston with their increased minutes. The line implies Alabama would be a 2- or 3-point favorite on a neutral floor, and I just am not buying it. I’ll take the points here.
The Pick
Kentucky +6
Michigan vs. Michigan State
(Line: Michigan State -3.5, DraftKings Sportsbook)
The battle of Michigan is always a fun one as these two very inconsistent teams meet in East Lansing. This will be a battle of the frontcourt versus the backcourt, as Sparty has no answer down low for Hunter Dickinson and has struggled all season defending the post. While the guard combo of AJ Hoggard, Tyson Walker and Jaden Akins should find a ton of success and shouldn’t have a problem getting into the paint against this Michigan perimeter defense. Hoggard’s decision-making against the Michigan drop coverage will be key and he’s been playing well lately racking up 9 assists per game over his last three games. Sparty is getting healthier with big wing Malik Hall back in the fold who could have a big impact on this game and raises Michigan State’s offensive ceiling. I expect Dickinson to have a big game, but the Spartan backcourt should control this game from tip against this very young Wolverine backcourt. Transition and early offense will be key for Michigan State and in front of the raucous Izzone, Michigan’s fraudy undefeated conference record should come to an end.
The Pick
Michigan State -3.5
