NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
DeAndre HopkinsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Titans vs. Jaguars
Right now, DeAndre Hopkins’s receiving yards prop is set at 68.5 yards (-129/-106).
The public has bet the OVER up to 68.5 (-129) after it opened @ 61.5 (-119).
Pros
- At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Titans are underdogs in this week’s game, implying more of a reliance on passing than their typical game plan.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, leading opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 10th-most passes in the league (37.4 per game) this year.
- Our trusted projections expect DeAndre Hopkins to accrue 9.8 targets in this week’s game, on balance, placing him in the 95th percentile among wideouts.
- DeAndre Hopkins has accumulated significantly more air yards this season (119.0 per game) than he did last season (111.0 per game).
- DeAndre Hopkins’s 73.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive volume) grades out among the best in football: 97th percentile for WRs.
Cons
- Right now, the 9th-least pass-centric offense in the league (58.4% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Titans.
- Our trusted projections expect the Titans to call the 3rd-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.0 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
- The Tennessee Titans have called the 5th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 55.0 plays per game.
- In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the significance it has on all pass game metrics), the O-line of the Titans grades out as the 7th-worst in football this year.
- DeAndre Hopkins has put up a lot fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (61.0) this year than he did last year (82.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
77
Receiving Yards
77
Receiving Yards
