Week 18 Player Props: Receiving Yards for DeAndre Hopkins from EV Insight

DeAndre HopkinsReceiving Yards

Right now, DeAndre Hopkins’s receiving yards prop is set at 68.5 yards (-129/-106).

The public has bet the OVER up to 68.5 (-129) after it opened @ 61.5 (-119).

Pros

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Titans are underdogs in this week’s game, implying more of a reliance on passing than their typical game plan.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, leading opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 10th-most passes in the league (37.4 per game) this year.
Our trusted projections expect DeAndre Hopkins to accrue 9.8 targets in this week’s game, on balance, placing him in the 95th percentile among wideouts.
DeAndre Hopkins has accumulated significantly more air yards this season (119.0 per game) than he did last season (111.0 per game).
DeAndre Hopkins’s 73.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive volume) grades out among the best in football: 97th percentile for WRs.

Cons

Right now, the 9th-least pass-centric offense in the league (58.4% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Titans.
Our trusted projections expect the Titans to call the 3rd-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.0 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have called the 5th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 55.0 plays per game.
In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the significance it has on all pass game metrics), the O-line of the Titans grades out as the 7th-worst in football this year.
DeAndre Hopkins has put up a lot fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (61.0) this year than he did last year (82.0).

Projection

THE BLITZ
77
Receiving Yards