Week 18 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Dalton Kincaid from EV Insight

Dalton KincaidReceiving Yards

Right now, Dalton Kincaid’s receiving yards prop is set at 30.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 30.5 (-110) after it opened @ 32.5 (-114).

Pros

Right now, the 10th-most pass-focused offense in the league (63.4% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Buffalo Bills.
Our trusted projections expect Dalton Kincaid to garner 5.6 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 85th percentile among tight ends.
With a high 17.3% Target Rate (89th percentile) this year, Dalton Kincaid stands among the TEs with the biggest workloads in the league.
With a remarkable 39.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (84th percentile) this year, Dalton Kincaid ranks among the leading pass-catching TEs in football.
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has given up the 10th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (76.9%) to tight ends this year (76.9%).

Cons

With a 3-point advantage, the Bills are favored this week, implying more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical game plan.
The model projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 6th-most sluggish paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 28.47 seconds per play.
As it relates to safeties in pass coverage, Miami’s collection of safeties has been fantastic this year, ranking as the 2nd-best in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
37
Receiving Yards