NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Chigoziem OkonkwoReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Titans vs. Jaguars
Right now, Chigoziem Okonkwo’s receiving yards prop is set at 34.5 yards (-103/-133).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 34.5 (-133) after it opened @ 39.5 (-117).
Pros
- At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Titans are underdogs in this week’s game, implying more of a reliance on passing than their typical game plan.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, leading opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 10th-most passes in the league (37.4 per game) this year.
- The predictive model expects Chigoziem Okonkwo to accrue 5.9 targets in this week’s contest, on average, putting him in the 90th percentile among tight ends.
- Chigoziem Okonkwo’s 16.5% Target Share this season conveys a substantial boost in his passing offense usage over last season’s 10.8% rate.
- After accruing 21.0 air yards per game last season, Chigoziem Okonkwo has gotten better this season, now sitting at 33.0 per game.
Cons
- Right now, the 9th-least pass-centric offense in the league (58.4% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Titans.
- Our trusted projections expect the Titans to call the 3rd-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.0 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
- The Tennessee Titans have called the 5th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 55.0 plays per game.
- In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the significance it has on all pass game metrics), the O-line of the Titans grades out as the 7th-worst in football this year.
- Chigoziem Okonkwo’s 6.8 adjusted yards per target this season signifies a material diminishment in his receiving talent over last season’s 9.0 mark.
Projection
THE BLITZ
41
Receiving Yards
41
Receiving Yards
