Week 18 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Chigoziem Okonkwo from EV Insight

Chigoziem OkonkwoReceiving Yards

Right now, Chigoziem Okonkwo’s receiving yards prop is set at 34.5 yards (-103/-133).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 34.5 (-133) after it opened @ 39.5 (-117).

Pros

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Titans are underdogs in this week’s game, implying more of a reliance on passing than their typical game plan.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, leading opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 10th-most passes in the league (37.4 per game) this year.
The predictive model expects Chigoziem Okonkwo to accrue 5.9 targets in this week’s contest, on average, putting him in the 90th percentile among tight ends.
Chigoziem Okonkwo’s 16.5% Target Share this season conveys a substantial boost in his passing offense usage over last season’s 10.8% rate.
After accruing 21.0 air yards per game last season, Chigoziem Okonkwo has gotten better this season, now sitting at 33.0 per game.

Cons

Right now, the 9th-least pass-centric offense in the league (58.4% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Titans.
Our trusted projections expect the Titans to call the 3rd-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.0 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have called the 5th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 55.0 plays per game.
In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the significance it has on all pass game metrics), the O-line of the Titans grades out as the 7th-worst in football this year.
Chigoziem Okonkwo’s 6.8 adjusted yards per target this season signifies a material diminishment in his receiving talent over last season’s 9.0 mark.

Projection

THE BLITZ
41
Receiving Yards