Week 18 Player Props: Passing Yards for Jake Browning from EV Insight

Jake BrowningPassing Yards

Right now, Jake Browning’s passing yards prop is set at 228.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 228.5 (-110) after it opened @ 232.5 (-110).

Pros

The Bengals may take to the air less this week (and call more rushes) since they be rolling with backup QB Jake Browning.
At the moment, the 2nd-most pass-centric offense in the NFL (66.8% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Cincinnati Bengals.
Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Bengals are projected by our trusted projection set to run 65.7 offensive plays in this contest: the 10th-most on the slate this week.
With an impressive 71.6% Adjusted Completion% (92nd percentile) this year, Jake Browning places among the most accurate passers in the NFL.
Jake Browning is positioned as one of the most effective quarterbacks in the NFL this year, averaging a stellar 8.04 adjusted yards-per-target while grading out in the 89th percentile.

Cons

A running game script is indicated by the Bengals being a 5.5-point favorite in this week’s contest.
The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 33.1 pass attempts per game against the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 6th-fewest in football.
This year, the tough Cleveland Browns defense has surrendered a meager 62.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the lowest rate in the NFL.
This year, the formidable Cleveland Browns defense has surrendered the least yards-after-the-catch in football to the opposing side: a meager 3.9 YAC.

Projection

THE BLITZ
198
Passing Yards