Week 18 Player Props: Passing Yards for Desmond Ridder from EV Insight

Desmond RidderPassing Yards

Right now, Desmond Ridder’s passing yards prop is set at 180.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Falcons to call the 6th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Atlanta Falcons O-line grades out as the 5th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
The Atlanta Falcons have faced a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Atlanta Falcons have incorporated some form of misdirection on 53.2% of their play-calls since the start of last season (7th-most in football), which can confuse the defense and bolster offensive production.

Cons

The Falcons are a 5.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 45.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have run the 7th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 54.6 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have thrown for the 10th-least yards in football (just 218.0 per game) vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency this year, yielding 7.02 yards-per-target: the 5th-least in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
193
Passing Yards