WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Andy DaltonPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Saints vs. Panthers
Right now, Andy Dalton’s passing yards prop is set at 215.5 yards (-115/-113).
The public has bet the OVER up to 215.5 (-115) after it opened @ 207.5 (-110).
Pros
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game against the Carolina Panthers defense this year: 7th-most in the league.
- Andy Dalton’s passing precision has improved this year, with his Completion% jumping from 62.7% to 66.0%.
- Andy Dalton’s pass-game effectiveness has been refined this year, notching 7.49 yards-per-target vs a measly 6.19 rate last year.
- Opposing offenses have passed for the 7th-most yards in football (251.0 per game) vs. the Carolina Panthers defense this year.
Cons
- The Saints are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, which points towards a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 9th-least pass-centric offense in football (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 58.1% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Saints to run the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 61.9 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The New Orleans Saints have called the 8th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 55.0 plays per game.
- The Carolina Panthers defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.53 yards-after-the-catch this year: the least in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
260
Passing Yards
260
Passing Yards
