NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Travis EtienneRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Jaguars vs. Panthers
Right now, Travis Etienne’s rushing yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The Jaguars are a giant 7-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- Our trusted projections expect the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 10th-fastest paced defense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.82 seconds per snap.
- Our trusted projections expect Travis Etienne to accumulate 18.7 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 95th percentile among running backs.
- Travis Etienne has been a more integral piece of his team’s run game this year (64.8% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (51.6%).
- The Panthers defense has had the 4th-worst efficiency against opposing running games this year, surrendering 4.81 adjusted yards-per-carry.
Cons
- The Jacksonville Jaguars will be forced to use backup QB C.J. Beathard in this week’s contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- With a 34.5% rate of rushing the ball (in a neutral context) this year, the 6th-least run-heavy team in football has been the Jacksonville Jaguars.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line profiles as the 2nd-worst in the NFL last year at blocking for the run game.
- Travis Etienne’s 3.6 adjusted yards per carry this season conveys a material reduction in his rushing ability over last season’s 5.1 mark.
- As it relates to the defensive ends’ role in run defense, Carolina’s DE corps has been very good this year, grading out as the 4th-best in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
84
Rushing Yards
84
Rushing Yards
