Week 17 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Travis Etienne from EV Insight

Travis EtienneRushing Yards

Right now, Travis Etienne’s rushing yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

The Jaguars are a giant 7-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
Our trusted projections expect the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 10th-fastest paced defense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.82 seconds per snap.
Our trusted projections expect Travis Etienne to accumulate 18.7 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 95th percentile among running backs.
Travis Etienne has been a more integral piece of his team’s run game this year (64.8% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (51.6%).
The Panthers defense has had the 4th-worst efficiency against opposing running games this year, surrendering 4.81 adjusted yards-per-carry.

Cons

The Jacksonville Jaguars will be forced to use backup QB C.J. Beathard in this week’s contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
With a 34.5% rate of rushing the ball (in a neutral context) this year, the 6th-least run-heavy team in football has been the Jacksonville Jaguars.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line profiles as the 2nd-worst in the NFL last year at blocking for the run game.
Travis Etienne’s 3.6 adjusted yards per carry this season conveys a material reduction in his rushing ability over last season’s 5.1 mark.
As it relates to the defensive ends’ role in run defense, Carolina’s DE corps has been very good this year, grading out as the 4th-best in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
84
Rushing Yards