Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Saquon BarkleyRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Giants vs. Rams
Right now, Saquon Barkley’s rushing yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (+104/-134).
The public has bet the OVER up to 69.5 (+104) after it opened @ 65.5 (-113).
Pros
- Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Giants to run on 45.2% of their plays: the 9th-highest clip among all teams this week.
- Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the projections to have 132.4 plays on offense run: the 2nd-highest number on the slate this week.
- The leading projections forecast Saquon Barkley to total 20.3 rush attempts in this game, on average, putting him in the 97th percentile when it comes to RBs.
- Out of all running backs, Saquon Barkley ranks in the 97th percentile for carries this year, taking on 67.2% of the workload in his team’s running game.
- Saquon Barkley has averaged 71.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year, one of the largest marks in the league when it comes to RBs (97th percentile).
Cons
- The Giants will be forced to use backup QB Tyrod Taylor in this week’s contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Giants are underdogs this week, suggesting more of a focus on throwing than their usual approach.
- The New York Giants offensive line grades out as the 7th-worst in football last year at blocking for the run game.
- The Los Angeles Rams defensive tackles project as the 4th-best group of DTs in the league this year when it comes to stopping the run.
Projection
THE BLITZ
84
Rushing Yards
84
Rushing Yards
