Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
D.J. MooreReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Bears vs. Falcons
Right now, D.J. Moore’s receiving yards prop is set at 66.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 66.5 (-110) after it opened @ 65.5 (-110).
Pros
- D.J. Moore has run a route on 95.0% of his offense’s dropbacks this year, putting him in the 97th percentile among wide receivers.
- In this week’s contest, D.J. Moore is forecasted by the projection model to position himself in the 85th percentile among WRs with 7.9 targets.
- D.J. Moore has compiled a monstrous 94.0 air yards per game this year: 90th percentile when it comes to WRs.
- D.J. Moore’s 73.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season reflects a substantial improvement in his pass-catching prowess over last season’s 49.0 figure.
- D.J. Moore’s sure-handedness have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate rising from 57.7% to 72.9%.
Cons
- Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Chicago Bears to pass on 46.0% of their downs: the lowest frequency on the slate this week.
- The leading projections forecast the Bears offense to be the 10th-slowest paced team in football (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 28.39 seconds per play.
- Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Falcons, totaling the 10th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 34.8 per game) this year.
- The Chicago O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
- The Falcons defense has yielded the 4th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 120.0) versus wideouts this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
56
Receiving Yards
56
Receiving Yards
