NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Kenneth Walker IIIRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Seahawks vs. Steelers
Right now, Kenneth Walker III’s rushing yards prop is set at 56.5 yards (-106/-129).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 56.5 (-129) after it opened @ 63.5 (-117).
Pros
- A running game script is indicated by the Seahawks being a 4.5-point favorite in this game.
- The model projects Kenneth Walker to earn 15.6 rush attempts in this week’s contest, on balance, putting him in the 85th percentile among running backs.
- Out of all running backs, Kenneth Walker ranks in the 96th percentile for rush attempts this year, accounting for 66.5% of the workload in his offense’s running game.
- The Steelers safeties grade out as the 25th-worst unit in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.
Cons
- Right now, the 7th-least run-focused team in football (36.3% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Seahawks.
- The projections expect the Seahawks to run the fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.0 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
- The Seahawks have called the 6th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 55.5 plays per game.
- The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (2-mph wind) being projected in this game, while run volume may slide.
- Kenneth Walker’s 57.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year indicates a significant drop-off in his rushing skills over last year’s 70.0 figure.
Projection
THE BLITZ
74
Rushing Yards
74
Rushing Yards
