Week 17 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Kenneth Walker III from EV Insight

Kenneth Walker IIIRushing Yards

Right now, Kenneth Walker III’s rushing yards prop is set at 56.5 yards (-106/-129).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 56.5 (-129) after it opened @ 63.5 (-117).

Pros

A running game script is indicated by the Seahawks being a 4.5-point favorite in this game.
The model projects Kenneth Walker to earn 15.6 rush attempts in this week’s contest, on balance, putting him in the 85th percentile among running backs.
Out of all running backs, Kenneth Walker ranks in the 96th percentile for rush attempts this year, accounting for 66.5% of the workload in his offense’s running game.
The Steelers safeties grade out as the 25th-worst unit in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.

Cons

Right now, the 7th-least run-focused team in football (36.3% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Seahawks.
The projections expect the Seahawks to run the fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.0 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The Seahawks have called the 6th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 55.5 plays per game.
The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (2-mph wind) being projected in this game, while run volume may slide.
Kenneth Walker’s 57.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year indicates a significant drop-off in his rushing skills over last year’s 70.0 figure.

Projection

THE BLITZ
74
Rushing Yards