Prime-Time Props — Thursday Night Football, Week 1
Prop God
College football’s bowl season is coming down the home stretch now, with most of the remaining games either being part of the College Football Playoff or featuring teams that just missed the biggest spotlight. One such game is Friday, featuring No. 9 Missouri vs. No. 7 Ohio Sate in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic in AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.
Below, I’ll look at the outlook for the game and make my best bet.
Cotton Bowl: Missouri vs. Ohio State
8 p.m. ET Friday
Ohio State -4.5, O/U 49
Transfer Portal/Draft Opt-Outs
Ohio State
There are some extremely impactful names that have skipped Ohio State bowl games in the past. Most notable in recent memory is the duo of Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave skipping the 2022 Rose Bowl, allowing for the emergence of Marvin Harrison Jr. and Jaxon Smith-Njigba being matched up with a running back playing corner, resulting in an otherworldly 15-347-3 performance that I remember like it was yesterday. One of the first football names my now 4-year-old daughter learned was Jaxon Smith-Njigba, as we did dances around the living room chanting his name after that game. True story.
What does all of that have to do with this game? Well, it means one of two things — either Harrison will not play (I’m leaning this way), or if he does play, it will be with the singular purpose of leaving his legacy with an even more memorable game than the JSN Rose Bowl. That will be no easy task with Johnny-Come-Lately Devin Brown taking over at QB for Kyle McCord — which, while it may be addition by subtraction for the Buckeyes overall — does MHJ no favors in potentially setting records due to their lack of chemistry and rapport. So if MHJ opts out, the Buckeyes will be without their QB1 and WR1, which will likely mean a heavy dose of TreVeyon Henderson and a steadier/less explosive pace for the Ohio State offense. Emeka Egbuka and Cade Stover should be suiting up for this one, and lesser-known weapons in the passing game like Brandon Iniss, Carnell Tate and gadget weapon Xavier Johnson are all available at Ohio State’s disposal as well, so even with Miyan Williams out for the season and Chip Trayanum now committed to Kentucky via the portal, there will be other options to help shoulder the load alongside Henderson. Julian Fleming is also in the portal, but despite all of the initial acclaim in his recruitment, he’s never proven to be much more than a plodding possession WR, and so the Buckeyes will also have some addition by subtraction potential with one of Inniss or Tate taking over for Fleming.
On the defensive side, the Buckeyes remain more or less intact and have been a formidable unit, allowing only Michigan to score more than 17 points this season.
Missouri
This may be one of the biggest games the Missouri football program has ever played, and so it is no surprise that everyone who is healthy will be suiting up for this one. The Tigers will have two starters missing on defense, CB Ennis Rakestraw and LB Ty’Ron Hopper, who will both miss due to injury.
Motivation/Matchup
To say that Ohio State is unmotivated would be a mistake — Ryan Day does a good job of getting his troops ready against everyone but Michigan, and this is a bowl game on a large enough stage that there is enough at stake for Day with regard to recruiting and his job itself that the Buckeyes should come out crisp. Whether they can dispatch Missouri with their usual brand of efficiency with an unproven Devin Brown at the helm is another matter entirely. I would imagine this is a scenario where the offense starts out a bit conservative and begins to build confidence as the game goes on. If you want to take a first-half under on this premise, I wouldn’t mind that at all.
For Brady Cook, Cody Schrader and Luther Burden, this is game is the culmination of their careers to this point, collectively and individually. Burden will very likely go on to have a productive career in the NFL, but for Cook and Schrader it is entirely possible they will not play in a bigger game than this one in their lives. I don’t know how you don’t get up for that, and that sort of energy is infectious. While Ohio State may come out a bit tentative as they feel their way around a Devin Brown led offense, Missouri should come out guns blazing and firing on all cylinders, especially on offense. There weren’t many secondaries in the SEC that could contain Luther Burden, and the Buckeyes secondary will struggle with this as well.
The Pick
Missouri +4.5
When you have a matchup of two well-coached, disciplined teams like we have in this one, I will usually lean on the side with more continuity, especially on the offensive side of the ball. That is easily Missouri, and even if the pure talent is deeper and better on the Ohio State side, the ability to gel quickly and play together as a unit on this one is the deciding factor.
