Week 17 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Joe Mixon from EV Insight

Joe MixonRushing Yards

Right now, Joe Mixon’s rushing yards prop is set at 44.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

Joe Mixon has generated 57.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year, one of the biggest figures in the league when it comes to running backs (85th percentile).
This year, the daunting Chiefs run defense has conceded a feeble 4.67 adjusted yards-per-carry to opposing rushing attacks: the 25th-best rate in the league.
As it relates to the safeties’ role in run defense, Kansas City’s unit has been very bad this year, ranking as the 4th-worst in the league. in the league.

Cons

The Bengals will be forced to utilize backup QB Jake Browning in this week’s contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
At a -7-point disadvantage, the Bengals are huge underdogs in this game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their usual approach.
Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Bengals to run on 35.6% of their opportunities: the 2nd-lowest clip on the slate this week.
Right now, the 3rd-most sluggish paced offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Bengals.
While Joe Mixon has garnered 72.7% of his offense’s rush attempts in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be much less involved in Cincinnati’s rushing attack in this game at 58.3%.

Projection

THE BLITZ
55
Rushing Yards