Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Javonte WilliamsRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Broncos vs. Chargers
Right now, Javonte Williams’s rushing yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-107/-121).
The public has bet the OVER up to 59.5 (-107) after it opened @ 57.5 (-115).
Pros
- With a 3.5-point advantage, the Broncos are favored in this game, suggesting more of a reliance on running than their standard approach.
- The predictive model expects the Denver Broncos as the 5th-most run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 49.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- The predictive model expects Javonte Williams to garner 15.8 carries in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 87th percentile when it comes to RBs.
- Out of all running backs, Javonte Williams ranks in the 86th percentile for rush attempts this year, comprising 53.9% of the workload in his team’s ground game.
- Javonte Williams has generated 50.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year, one of the highest marks in the NFL when it comes to RBs (77th percentile).
Cons
- The Broncos may take to the air less in this week’s contest (and hand the ball off more) since they be forced to utilize backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham.
- Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by the projections to have only 127.5 plays on offense run: the 3rd-lowest number among all games this week.
- The Broncos have run the 3rd-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a mere 54.2 plays per game.
Projection
THE BLITZ
63
Rushing Yards
63
Rushing Yards
