Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Ezekiel ElliottRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Bills vs. Patriots
Right now, Ezekiel Elliott’s rushing yards prop is set at 40.5 yards (-125/-105).
The public has bet the OVER up to 40.5 (-125) after it opened @ 40.5 (-105).
Pros
- At a mere 27.03 seconds per snap, the New England Patriots offense rates as the 9th-quickest paced in the league (in a neutral context) this year.
- The leading projections forecast Ezekiel Elliott to notch 14.2 rush attempts this week, on average, putting him in the 77th percentile among RBs.
- While Ezekiel Elliott has garnered 42.9% of his team’s rush attempts in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a much smaller part of New England’s run game in this week’s game at 22.2%.
- The Bills defense has had the 6th-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, giving up 4.69 adjusted yards-per-carry.
- The Buffalo Bills defensive tackles rank as the 3rd-worst group of DTs in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.
Cons
- At a -14.5-point disadvantage, the Patriots are massive underdogs this week, implying much more of a reliance on passing than their standard game plan.
- Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the New England Patriots to run on 39.2% of their plays: the 10th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
- Ezekiel Elliott’s 34.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this season illustrates a remarkable reduction in his rushing talent over last season’s 61.0 figure.
- Ezekiel Elliott’s running effectiveness (3.27 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the NFL this year (10th percentile when it comes to running backs).
Projection
THE BLITZ
56
Rushing Yards
56
Rushing Yards
