NBA Prop of the Day
Jake Silverman
Devon AchaneRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Ravens vs. Dolphins
Right now, Devon Achane’s rushing yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the OVER up to 55.5 (-105) after it opened @ 50.5 (-120).
Pros
- The projections expect Devon Achane to be much less involved in his team’s ground game in this contest (0.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (27.1% in games he has played).
- The Miami O-line grades out as the 7th-best in the league last year at opening holes for runners.
- Devon Achane has grinded out 68.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year, one of the largest marks in the league among RBs (95th percentile).
- Devon Achane’s ground efficiency (7.76 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in football this year (98th percentile among running backs).
Cons
- A passing game script is suggested by the Dolphins being a -3-point underdog in this week’s contest.
- Our trusted projections expect the Dolphins as the most run-focused offense among all teams this week with a 100.0% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The projections expect the Dolphins to call the 9th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The 7th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Dolphins this year (only 55.7 per game on average).
- As it relates to the defensive tackles’ role in stopping the run, Baltimore’s DT corps has been outstanding this year, grading out as the 2nd-best in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
73
Rushing Yards
73
Rushing Yards
