Week 17 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Devon Achane from EV Insight

Devon AchaneRushing Yards

Right now, Devon Achane’s rushing yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-105/-125).

The public has bet the OVER up to 55.5 (-105) after it opened @ 50.5 (-120).

Pros

The projections expect Devon Achane to be much less involved in his team’s ground game in this contest (0.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (27.1% in games he has played).
The Miami O-line grades out as the 7th-best in the league last year at opening holes for runners.
Devon Achane has grinded out 68.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year, one of the largest marks in the league among RBs (95th percentile).
Devon Achane’s ground efficiency (7.76 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in football this year (98th percentile among running backs).

Cons

A passing game script is suggested by the Dolphins being a -3-point underdog in this week’s contest.
Our trusted projections expect the Dolphins as the most run-focused offense among all teams this week with a 100.0% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect the Dolphins to call the 9th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The 7th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Dolphins this year (only 55.7 per game on average).
As it relates to the defensive tackles’ role in stopping the run, Baltimore’s DT corps has been outstanding this year, grading out as the 2nd-best in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
73
Rushing Yards