Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Christian McCaffreyRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Commanders vs. 49ers
Right now, Christian McCaffrey’s rushing yards prop is set at 88.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The 49ers are an enormous 14-point favorite in this week’s contest, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
- The model projects the 49ers to be the 4th-most run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 50.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
- The predictive model expects Christian McCaffrey to accrue 21.7 carries in this game, on balance, putting him in the 100th percentile when it comes to running backs.
- Christian McCaffrey has been a more important option in his team’s rushing attack this year (68.9% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (58.4%).
- Christian McCaffrey has rushed for many more adjusted yards per game (97.0) this season than he did last season (68.0).
Cons
- Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the 49ers are expected by the projection model to call only 63.2 plays on offense in this game: the 4th-fewest among all teams this week.
- The San Francisco 49ers have run the fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 53.1 plays per game.
Projection
THE BLITZ
107
Rushing Yards
107
Rushing Yards
