Week 17 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Austin Ekeler from EV Insight

Austin EkelerRushing Yards

Right now, Austin Ekeler’s rushing yards prop is set at 54.5 yards (-115/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 54.5 (-115) after it opened @ 54.5 (-115).

Pros

The Chargers are a 6.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 2nd-most plays in the league this year, totaling a whopping 63.1 plays per game.
Austin Ekeler has been given 59.4% of his team’s rush attempts this year, putting him in the 91st percentile among running backs.
The Los Angeles Rams have stacked the box against opponents on just 5.9% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Los Angeles Chargers have risked going for it on 4th down 27.6% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-most in the NFL), which typically means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 7th-least run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 36.2% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 127.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Austin Ekeler has been among the worst running backs in the NFL at picking up extra ground yardage, averaging a lowly 2.72 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 25th percentile.
Opposing squads have rushed for the 8th-least yards in the league (just 107 per game) versus the Los Angeles Rams defense this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
58
Rushing Yards