Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Royce FreemanRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Texans vs. Jaguars
Right now, Royce Freeman’s rushing yards prop is set at 41.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 41.5 (-120) after it opened @ 41.5 (-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects Royce Freeman to accrue 13.2 rush attempts in this game, on average, putting him in the 76th percentile among running backs.
- THE BLITZ projects Royce Freeman to be a more integral piece of his offense’s rushing attack this week (53.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (22.3% in games he has played).
Cons
- The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.7% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- The Texans are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 10th-least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 38.2% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 8th-most sluggish paced defense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 28.55 seconds per snap.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars defense owns the 10th-best efficiency against opposing run games this year, giving up just 4.37 yards-per-carry.
Projection
THE BLITZ
53
Rushing Yards
53
Rushing Yards
