Week 17 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Royce Freeman from EV Insight

Royce FreemanRushing Yards

Right now, Royce Freeman’s rushing yards prop is set at 41.5 yards (-110/-120).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 41.5 (-120) after it opened @ 41.5 (-110).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects Royce Freeman to accrue 13.2 rush attempts in this game, on average, putting him in the 76th percentile among running backs.
THE BLITZ projects Royce Freeman to be a more integral piece of his offense’s rushing attack this week (53.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (22.3% in games he has played).

Cons

The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.7% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Texans are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 10th-least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 38.2% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 8th-most sluggish paced defense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 28.55 seconds per snap.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense owns the 10th-best efficiency against opposing run games this year, giving up just 4.37 yards-per-carry.

Projection

THE BLITZ
53
Rushing Yards