Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Tyreek HillReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Ravens vs. Dolphins
Right now, Tyreek Hill’s receiving yards prop is set at 94.5 yards (-166/+120).
The public has bet the OVER up to 94.5 (-166) after it opened @ 93.5 (-117).
Pros
- A passing game script is suggested by the Dolphins being a -3-point underdog in this week’s contest.
- The projections expect the Dolphins to be the least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 0.0% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Ravens defense this year: 2nd-most in football.
- In this week’s game, Tyreek Hill is projected by our trusted projection set to land in the 100th percentile among wideouts with 12.5 targets.
- Tyreek Hill has accrued substantially more adjusted receiving yards per game (111.0) this season than he did last season (92.0).
Cons
- The projections expect the Dolphins to call the 9th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The 7th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Dolphins this year (only 55.7 per game on average).
- After averaging 131.0 air yards per game last season, Tyreek Hill has seen a big decrease this season, currently averaging 113.0 per game.
- The Miami O-line profiles as the 10th-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a harmful influence on all pass attack statistics across the board.
- This year, the formidable Baltimore Ravens defense has surrendered a feeble 59.9% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing WRs: the 5th-best rate in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
107
Receiving Yards
107
Receiving Yards
