Week 17 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tyler Lockett from EV Insight

Tyler LockettReceiving Yards

Right now, Tyler Lockett’s receiving yards prop is set at 53.5 yards (-105/-125).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 53.5 (-125) after it opened @ 54.5 (-115).

Pros

The leading projections forecast the Seahawks to be the 7th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now with a 63.7% pass rate.
The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (2-mph wind) being projected in this game, while run volume may slide.
The predictive model expects Tyler Lockett to total 7.7 targets in this week’s game, on balance, placing him in the 84th percentile among WRs.
Tyler Lockett has been an integral part of his team’s passing offense, garnering a Target Share of 23.5% this year, which ranks him in the 86th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
Tyler Lockett has accrued a colossal 85.0 air yards per game this year: 85th percentile among WRs.

Cons

A running game script is indicated by the Seahawks being a 4.5-point favorite in this game.
The projections expect the Seahawks to run the fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.0 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The Seahawks have called the 6th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 55.5 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.7 pass attempts per game against the Steelers defense this year: 9th-fewest in the NFL.
Tyler Lockett’s ball-catching skills have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate decreasing from 75.8% to 70.4%.

Projection

THE BLITZ
65
Receiving Yards