Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Tyler LockettReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Seahawks vs. Steelers
Right now, Tyler Lockett’s receiving yards prop is set at 53.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 53.5 (-125) after it opened @ 54.5 (-115).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast the Seahawks to be the 7th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now with a 63.7% pass rate.
- The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (2-mph wind) being projected in this game, while run volume may slide.
- The predictive model expects Tyler Lockett to total 7.7 targets in this week’s game, on balance, placing him in the 84th percentile among WRs.
- Tyler Lockett has been an integral part of his team’s passing offense, garnering a Target Share of 23.5% this year, which ranks him in the 86th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
- Tyler Lockett has accrued a colossal 85.0 air yards per game this year: 85th percentile among WRs.
Cons
- A running game script is indicated by the Seahawks being a 4.5-point favorite in this game.
- The projections expect the Seahawks to run the fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.0 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
- The Seahawks have called the 6th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 55.5 plays per game.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.7 pass attempts per game against the Steelers defense this year: 9th-fewest in the NFL.
- Tyler Lockett’s ball-catching skills have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate decreasing from 75.8% to 70.4%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
65
Receiving Yards
65
Receiving Yards
