Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Tyler HigbeeReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Giants vs. Rams
Right now, Tyler Higbee’s receiving yards prop is set at 24.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 24.5 (-110) after it opened @ 25.5 (-110).
Pros
- The predictive model expects the Los Angeles Rams to call the 8th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The 5th-highest number of plays in the league have been run by the Los Angeles Rams this year (a whopping 60.8 per game on average).
- Tyler Higbee’s 79.7% Route Participation Rate this season reflects a noteable growth in his pass game utilization over last season’s 69.7% mark.
- Tyler Higbee has totaled a massive 25.0 air yards per game this year: 76th percentile when it comes to TEs.
- Tyler Higbee’s receiving effectiveness has gotten better this year, accumulating 6.95 adjusted yards-per-target vs a measly 5.92 figure last year.
Cons
- A running game script is implied by the Rams being a 6.5-point favorite in this game.
- Tyler Higbee’s 29.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this year shows a remarkable drop-off in his receiving prowess over last year’s 38.0 mark.
- With a bad 67.4% Adjusted Completion Rate (18th percentile) this year, Tyler Higbee stands among the most unreliable receivers in the league when it comes to TEs.
- This year, the tough New York Giants defense has yielded a paltry 67.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing TEs: the smallest rate in the league.
- The Giants safeties project as the 3rd-best safety corps in the league this year in defending pass-catchers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
22
Receiving Yards
22
Receiving Yards
