NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Travis KelceReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Chiefs vs. Bengals
Right now, Travis Kelce’s receiving yards prop is set at 66.5 yards (-135/+100).
The public has bet the OVER up to 66.5 (-135) after it opened @ 61.5 (-115).
Pros
- Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 60.9% of their plays: the 9th-greatest frequency among all teams this week.
- Our trusted projections expect Travis Kelce to garner 8.4 targets this week, on balance, ranking him in the 97th percentile among tight ends.
- Travis Kelce’s 51.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive volume) grades out among the best in the NFL: 99th percentile for TEs.
- The Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive influence on all pass attack stats across the board.
- The Bengals defense has yielded the most adjusted receiving yards per game in football (66.0) vs. tight ends this year.
Cons
- The Chiefs are a heavy 7-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
- Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Chiefs are forecasted by our trusted projection set to run just 63.5 plays on offense in this game: the 5th-lowest number among all teams this week.
- After totaling 67.0 air yards per game last year, Travis Kelce has significantly declined this year, currently sitting at 57.0 per game.
- Travis Kelce’s 71.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season reflects a noteable decline in his pass-catching prowess over last season’s 80.0 mark.
Projection
THE BLITZ
70
Receiving Yards
70
Receiving Yards
