Week 17 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Travis Kelce from EV Insight

Travis KelceReceiving Yards

Right now, Travis Kelce’s receiving yards prop is set at 66.5 yards (-135/+100).

The public has bet the OVER up to 66.5 (-135) after it opened @ 61.5 (-115).

Pros

Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 60.9% of their plays: the 9th-greatest frequency among all teams this week.
Our trusted projections expect Travis Kelce to garner 8.4 targets this week, on balance, ranking him in the 97th percentile among tight ends.
Travis Kelce’s 51.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive volume) grades out among the best in the NFL: 99th percentile for TEs.
The Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive influence on all pass attack stats across the board.
The Bengals defense has yielded the most adjusted receiving yards per game in football (66.0) vs. tight ends this year.

Cons

The Chiefs are a heavy 7-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Chiefs are forecasted by our trusted projection set to run just 63.5 plays on offense in this game: the 5th-lowest number among all teams this week.
After totaling 67.0 air yards per game last year, Travis Kelce has significantly declined this year, currently sitting at 57.0 per game.
Travis Kelce’s 71.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season reflects a noteable decline in his pass-catching prowess over last season’s 80.0 mark.

Projection

THE BLITZ
70
Receiving Yards