Week 17 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Terry McLaurin from EV Insight

Terry McLaurinReceiving Yards

Right now, Terry McLaurin’s receiving yards prop is set at 57.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 57.5 (-115) after it opened @ 51.5 (-110).

Pros

This game’s line suggests an extreme passing game script for the Commanders, who are enormous -14-point underdogs.
The model projects the Commanders as the most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 67.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers defense has been something of pass funnel this year, causing opposing offenses to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (39.0 per game) this year.
In this week’s contest, Terry McLaurin is anticipated by the model to rank in the 86th percentile among WRs with 8.0 targets.
Terry McLaurin has posted far more air yards this season (94.0 per game) than he did last season (88.0 per game).

Cons

The predictive model expects this game to see the fewest plays run among all games this week at 125.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Terry McLaurin’s receiving reliability have declined this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate falling off from 67.4% to 59.6%.
Terry McLaurin’s pass-catching efficiency has diminished this season, compiling a measly 7.89 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 9.90 figure last season.
Terry McLaurin’s 3.94 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season marks a noteable decline in his efficiency in picking up extra yardage over last season’s 5.8% rate.
This year, the formidable San Francisco 49ers defense has yielded the 8th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing wide receivers: a feeble 7.4 yards.

Projection

THE BLITZ
60
Receiving Yards