Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Terry McLaurinReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Commanders vs. 49ers
Right now, Terry McLaurin’s receiving yards prop is set at 57.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 57.5 (-115) after it opened @ 51.5 (-110).
Pros
- This game’s line suggests an extreme passing game script for the Commanders, who are enormous -14-point underdogs.
- The model projects the Commanders as the most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 67.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- The San Francisco 49ers defense has been something of pass funnel this year, causing opposing offenses to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (39.0 per game) this year.
- In this week’s contest, Terry McLaurin is anticipated by the model to rank in the 86th percentile among WRs with 8.0 targets.
- Terry McLaurin has posted far more air yards this season (94.0 per game) than he did last season (88.0 per game).
Cons
- The predictive model expects this game to see the fewest plays run among all games this week at 125.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Terry McLaurin’s receiving reliability have declined this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate falling off from 67.4% to 59.6%.
- Terry McLaurin’s pass-catching efficiency has diminished this season, compiling a measly 7.89 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 9.90 figure last season.
- Terry McLaurin’s 3.94 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season marks a noteable decline in his efficiency in picking up extra yardage over last season’s 5.8% rate.
- This year, the formidable San Francisco 49ers defense has yielded the 8th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing wide receivers: a feeble 7.4 yards.
Projection
THE BLITZ
60
Receiving Yards
60
Receiving Yards
