Week 17 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Pat Freiermuth from EV Insight

Pat FreiermuthReceiving Yards

Right now, Pat Freiermuth’s receiving yards prop is set at 22.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 22.5 (-110) after it opened @ 21.5 (-110).

Pros

The Steelers may take to the air less in this week’s contest (and call more rushes) given that they be rolling with backup QB Mason Rudolph.
This week’s spread indicates a throwing game script for the Steelers, who are -4.5-point underdogs.
In this week’s contest, Pat Freiermuth is projected by the model to slot into the 79th percentile among TEs with 4.8 targets.
This year, the anemic Seattle Seahawks defense has yielded a monstrous 55.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing TEs: the 9th-most in football.
The Seahawks pass defense has struggled when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, conceding an average of 6.13 yards-after-the-catch this year: the most in the league.

Cons

The model projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 10th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 55.3% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Steelers are forecasted by the projections to call only 63.5 total plays in this game: the 5th-fewest on the slate this week.
The Steelers have called the 5th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 55.3 plays per game.
Pat Freiermuth has posted quite a few less air yards this season (29.0 per game) than he did last season (50.0 per game).
Pat Freiermuth has notched many fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (28.0) this season than he did last season (49.0).

Projection

THE BLITZ
29
Receiving Yards