Week 17 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Mike Gesicki from EV Insight

Mike GesickiReceiving Yards

Right now, Mike Gesicki’s receiving yards prop is set at 15.5 yards (-130/+100).

Pros

At a -14.5-point disadvantage, the Patriots are massive underdogs this week, implying much more of a reliance on passing than their standard game plan.
Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Patriots to pass on 60.8% of their plays: the 10th-greatest rate among all teams this week.
At a mere 27.03 seconds per snap, the New England Patriots offense rates as the 9th-quickest paced in the league (in a neutral context) this year.
In this game, Mike Gesicki is forecasted by the projection model to find himself in the 75th percentile among tight ends with 4.1 targets.
This year, the deficient Bills pass defense has allowed a whopping 77.4% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing TEs: the 6th-biggest rate in the league.

Cons

Mike Gesicki has accrued significantly fewer air yards this year (22.0 per game) than he did last year (30.0 per game).
The New England Patriots offensive line grades out as the 6th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
Mike Gesicki has totaled substantially fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (16.0) this year than he did last year (25.0).
Mike Gesicki’s pass-game effectiveness has declined this year, totaling just 6.15 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 8.39 figure last year.
Mike Gesicki is positioned as one of the worst tight ends in the league at generating extra yardage, averaging a measly 3.67 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 20th percentile.

Projection

THE BLITZ
23
Receiving Yards