Week 17 Player Props: Passing Yards for Sam Howell from EV Insight

Sam HowellPassing Yards

Right now, Sam Howell’s passing yards prop is set at 224.5 yards (-143/+110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 224.5 (+110) after it opened @ 236.5 (-114).

Pros

This game’s line suggests an extreme passing game script for the Commanders, who are enormous -14-point underdogs.
The model projects the Commanders as the most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 67.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
In this contest, Sam Howell is expected by the projections to wind up with the 3rd-most pass attempts out of all QBs with 38.3.
The San Francisco 49ers defense has been something of pass funnel this year, causing opposing offenses to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (39.0 per game) this year.

Cons

The predictive model expects this game to see the fewest plays run among all games this week at 125.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This year, the fierce 49ers defense has given up the 4th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing offenses: a measly 6.9 yards.
The 49ers defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.25 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-fewest in football.
As it relates to linebackers in pass coverage, San Francisco’s LB corps has been phenomenal this year, profiling as the 2nd-best in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
238
Passing Yards